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Direct-to-consumer brands – household names like HelloFresh, Peloton, Allbirds, Stitch Fix, Warby Parker and Rent the Runway, which cut out traditional retailers, wholesalers and other middlemen – have been falling. Investors shied away from high-growth stocks and retreated into companies with solid fundamentals and, most importantly, lots of profit. The problem is that none of these direct-to-consumer (DTC) companies have managed to make the transition to profitability themselves. Rent the Runway was down $114 million, and mattress company Purple lost about $121 million. Other companies, like SmileDirectClub, which went public in 2019, and Winc, a wine subscription company that went public in 2021, have declared bankruptcy.
Persons: Allbirds, Warby Parker, don’t, they’ll, , Ben Cogan, they’ve, Cogan, Casper, , it’s, Sesame, Michael Botta, Tesla, Chris Isidore, Elon Organizations: New, New York CNN, Agora, CNN, Hubble, Venture, , Companies, Wonder Group, Durational Capital Management, Costco, Western, Tesla Locations: New York
Trailing stop losses Investors who rode tech's ascent — consider that Nvidia is up more than 80% in 2024 — may be reluctant to part with those positions. However, trailing stop losses may permit them to hold on to those stocks and still protect against sharp declines. Put options give investors the right to sell a stock at a specified — or "strike" — price before an expiration date. However, you can also pair this strategy with a covered call, which may boost your income and offset losses. "Covered call options can be employed to generate income on existing stock holdings while potentially limiting upside potential," Lawrence said.
Persons: Ashton Lawrence, Lawrence, Cash Organizations: Mariner Wealth Advisors, Nvidia, Retail, Investors Locations: Greenville , South Carolina
Stellar stock-market returns have boosted Americans' retirement account balances. The number of 401(k) millionaires is up and average account balances are the highest in two years. Markets are volatileInvesting experts also caution against the belief that the market will keep producing strong returns year after year. Markets are up big (+20%) or negative nearly two-thirds of the time whereas 'average' returns (0-20%) only happen about a third of the time," Anderson wrote. Future uncertainty often brings a "sequence of returns risk" that's overlooked by early retirees.
Persons: , Brian Spinelli, Halbert Hargrove, Aaron Anderson, Spinelli, Stocks, Anderson, boomers Organizations: Service, Fidelity, Fisher Investments
According to Bank of America, valuation levels explain 80% of the market's return over a 10-year period. Bank of AmericaThere are many ways to measure valuation levels in the overall market. Hussman says it's the most accurate indicator of future market returns that he's found. AdvertisementThe Conference BoardThird, the number of US states with a rising unemployment rate is spiking, meaning that the overall unemployment rate should see further upside. BullAndBearProfits.comThe US unemployment rate is already on a slight uptrend, having climbed from 3.4% in April 2023 to 3.9% as of February.
Persons: , Jon Wolfenbarger, Merrill Lynch, John Hussman's, he's, Warren Buffett, Wolfenbarger, Stocks, Woflenbarger, Cam Harvey, Claudia Sahm, Louis Fed, Jeremy Grantham, John Hussman, David Rosenberg, Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, America's Savita Subramanian, Ian Shepherdson, Shepherdson Organizations: Service, Bank of America, Business, JPMorgan, National Federation of Independent Business, Board, Treasury, Bank, America's
At the simplest level, labor productivity is how much output (widgets, meals, spreadsheet computation) one person can complete in an hour. Employers were running around with fishnets trying to find people, and workers used their leverage. By contrast, the late 1990s were a period of higher productivity growth and underestimated growth, starting the year at 2% but ending closer to 4%. But it's probably too soon to be thinking about these factors as the main driver of recent productivity growth. The investment implications of this are clear: Stronger productivity growth implies a higher speed limit for the economy.
Persons: , it's, we'll Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of San, Labor, P Global, Manufacturing, Capital, Employers, downturns, Professional Locations: Silicon Valley, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Recessions Actually Make People Live Longer
  + stars: | 2024-03-19 | by ( Aki Ito | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +6 min
Recessions, it would seem, help us stay fitter, and live longer. The new paper, along with other research into recessions, provides an important reminder that economic growth isn't — and shouldn't be — the only measure of our collective well-being. If recessions save lives, that comes with a corollary: Boom times cost lives. Sure, economic growth provides jobs. If the new research tells us anything, it's that we still have a long way to go in striking a healthy balance between economic growth and social welfare.
Persons: grads, Amy Finkelstein, didn't, that's, Aki Ito Organizations: Business Locations: Japan, San Francisco
The simmering topic has been up for debate, in part because prices for NFL teams have risen so high that they threaten to restrict who can be a lead owner. This raises the question: Are investments in sports teams actually a good investment, especially for risk-averse investors like pensions and endowments? According to new research published in Investments & Wealth Publications in November, the answer is a resounding yes. For the article, he teamed up with his father, Arun Muralidhar, the chairman and founder of Mcube Investment Technologies, which develops decision-support products for institutional investment managers. "They themselves are investing globally to make sure that their brand is increasing, and they found great success with that."
Persons: , Sid Muralidhar, Muralidhar, Risktyle, Arun Muralidhar, Sachin Muralidhar, Sachin, Arun, Sid Muralidhar Sid Muralidhar, homed, it's Organizations: Service, NFL, Dallas Cowboys, Forbes, Business, Investments, Wealth, NHL, Citigroup, Mcube Investment Technologies, The University of Virginia, National Hockey League, NBA, MLB, BI
The odds of a recession are "very high" in the US, according to Joe LaVorgna. AdvertisementThe odds of the economy tipping into a recession are "very high," as the US is poised to see a wave of unemployment and a major drop in consumer spending. Advertisement"All three of those metrics are still flashing recession," LaVorgna said. AdvertisementStrong consumer spending on goods also looks poised to drop, which could end up dragging economic growth lower, LaVorgna said. "It makes me think recession risk … still has a very high probability," he added.
Persons: Joe LaVorgna, LaVorgna, Organizations: Service, Nikko Securities, Rosenberg Research, Treasury, Investor Locations: Nikko
Investors can still find names with plenty of upside potential, even as stocks leap to fresh highs, according to Bank of America. They include CrowdStrike, Emerson Electric, Progressive, Rollins and O'Reilly Automotive. Rollins "This stock is the bees knees and still a Buy," analyst Jason Haas said of the pest control provider. Progressive PGR may arguably be the least volatile stocks in the S & P 500 that can deliver outsized stock performance. … We see limited risk to Rollins' growth trajectory-from a soft housing market, recession, competition, or weather-and therefore believe the stock deserves a premium multiple."
Persons: Rollins, Andrew Obin, Emerson, Obin, it's, Jason Haas, Haas, Joshua Shanker, Shanker, O'Reilly, … Emerson, Organizations: Bank of America, CNBC, CrowdStrike, Emerson Electric, Progressive, O'Reilly Automotive, Emerson, National Instruments, ORLY Locations: Bank, Pest, downturns, ORLY
Read previewFund manager Randy Gwirtzman may be hungry for fast-growing stocks, but he's no gambler. Gwirtzman carefully handpicks his stocks and then is patient with them, even if they're on the market's bad side. How to maximize returns while limiting riskWhen searching for stocks, Gwirtzman keeps his strategy simple. AdvertisementInstead of straying away from riskier stocks, Gwirtzman and his co-manager take steps to mitigate risk. Another way Gwirtzman manages risk is by strategically selling when an investment hits a certain price target or valuation threshold.
Persons: , Randy Gwirtzman, Gwirtzman, downturns, Laird Bieger Organizations: Service, Business, Nvidia, Discovery Fund, Baron Discovery Fund Locations: riskier
Here's a roundup of recent recession warnings from six experts:This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers. Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan Chase CEOAdvertisementThere's a long history of investors being caught off guard by sudden downturns, Dimon told CNBC this week. AdvertisementSteve Hanke, Johns Hopkins professorThe US economy is headed for a recession if history is any indication, Hanke told Business Insider this week. AdvertisementPaul Dietrich, B. Riley Wealth Management's chief investment strategist"We're still on the path to recession," Dietrich told Business Insider in a recent interview. AdvertisementJeffrey Gundlach, DoubleLine Capital CEO"I think recession is closer than most people think," Gundlach said in a recent YouTube video.
Persons: , Jamie Dimon, There's, Dimon, David Solomon, Goldman Sachs, Solomon, Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley's, Zentner, Steve Hanke, Johns Hopkins, Hanke, Paul Dietrich, Riley Wealth, We're, Dietrich, Jeffrey Gundlach, Gundlach Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Business, JPMorgan, CNBC, UBS, DoubleLine Locations: American, Russia, Ukraine, Israel
A key recession signal has been flashing for 16 months, but the other half of a downturn is missing. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . The firm pointed out that the spread between the 10-year and three-month treasury yields has been inverted for 16 months. Advertisement10-year minus 3-month Treasury yields from 1982 Federal Reserve Bank of St. LouisThat said, the inverted curve only accounts for 50% of a solid recession call. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley's chief economist, Ellen Zentner, warned that a "hard landing" downturn is guaranteed as the impact of Fed rate hikes still hasn't been felt fully throughout the economy.
Persons: , Louis That, Jamie Dimon, Morgan Stanley's, Ellen Zentner Organizations: Service, DataTrek Research, Treasury, Reserve Bank of St, Fed, JPMorgan Locations: downturns, Kuwait
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon thinks there's a better-than-even chance that the U.S. is heading for a recession, though he doesn't see systemic issues looming. "The market is kind of pricing in a soft landing. Along with the elevated rates, markets have had to contend with the Federal Reserve rolling off its bond holdings, a process known as quantitative tightening. But they will play out and they will have an effect and in my mind I'm just kind of cautious about everything." Higher interest rates along with a recession could hit areas such as commercial real estate and regional banks hard, but with limited macroeconomic impacts, Dimon said.
Persons: Jamie Dimon, there's, Dimon, CNBC's Leslie Picker Organizations: JPMorgan, Conference, Federal Reserve, Silicon Valley Bank, New York Community Bank, CNBC PRO Locations: Miami, U.S, Silicon
The "Magnificent Seven" dominate the stock market to a worrying extent, one expert says. Deutsche Bank's economics chief, Jim Read, said investors should be wary of an economic slump. The "Magnificent Seven" are dominating the stock market to a worrying degree — and investors are underestimating the risk of a recession, one expert says. Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, and Tesla are collectively valued at more than $13 trillion, representing about a quarter of the entire US stock market. "My natural inclination is to say this is crazy," Jim Read, the global head of economics and thematic research at Deutsche Bank, told the "Merryn Talks Money" podcast this week.
Persons: Jim Read, Tesla Organizations: Deutsche, Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, Deutsche Bank, Business
AdvertisementThey are crying out about their finances to anyone who will listen — but it could come at a cost. They follow the money, putting paychecks above career steps that were once viewed as aspirational, like management positions or promotions. A job is just a job to Gen Z, who feel like the juice of career progression is not worth the squeeze. "So you just got to be really, really careful with the content you're consuming and the people that you're trusting." This can lead to financial envy and money anxiety, Imam said, as well as something called "money dysmorphia."
Persons: , Abby Ferrell, she'd, Gen Z, It's, Markia Brown, Brown, it's, Imam Organizations: Service, Business
Megacap tech stocks aren't just powering the U.S. stock market — they're also holding the world together. U.S. equities now comprise 70% of the MSCI World Index, the benchmark for large- and mid-cap companies across 23 developed markets. The MSCI World Index shifts regional and country weights based on broader economic trends. High levels of market concentration in the late 1920s to early 1930s, as well as 2000, coincided with a market top, he noted. The Europe Stoxx 600 has risen only 2.6% year to date, underperforming the U.S. broad market index.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Scott Rubner, Peter Berezin, Berezin, NVDA, Phillip Colmar, that's, Mike Dickson, Dickson, Warren Buffett's, Colmar, It's, you've, Germany DAX Organizations: Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, BCA Research, Big Tech, MRB Partners, Horizon Investments, Nikkei, British FTSE, France CAC Locations: U.S, Europe, Colmar, Japan, Asia, Germany, France
Stocks continued their bull market tear on Thursday, with the S&P 500 closing at a new record high of 5,029. But don’t expect the run to continue, says Lukasz Tomicki, founder of LRT Capital Management, a hedge fund managing $120 million in assets. “I think the market is pricing in perfection,” Tomicki told Business Insider. Another reason he’s bearish on the economy’s prospects is because the money supply is declining, meaning liquidity in the economy is shrinking. The cheaper end of the hotel industry is typically less volatile in an economic downturn, Tomicki said.
Persons: Stocks, Lukasz Tomicki, ” Tomicki, Tomicki, , , Northrup Grumman Organizations: Capital Management, Business, Federal, Fed, Wyndham Hotels & Resorts, Marriott, Hilton
Oil prices spiked last month following US-led strikes on Houthi targets in Yemen in response to repeated attacks on commercial ships in the Red Sea. One factor that could be keeping the cap on oil prices is waning demand. “Global oil demand growth is losing momentum,” said the agency in its February report. While global oil demand growth is slowing, supply has stayed relatively strong, potentially putting further downward pressure on oil prices. “Higher global oil supply this year, led by the United States, Brazil, Guyana and Canada, should more than eclipse the expected rise in world oil demand,” said the report.
Persons: Bell, , Donald Trump, Matt Egan, , Trump, Jay Ritter, Read, Anna Bahney, Freddie Mac, Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s, Khater, Bob Broeksmit Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New, New York CNN, West Texas, Brent, International Energy Agency, , shuttering, Federal, US, United Arab Emirates, White, Wall, Trump, Truth Social, Trump Media & Technology Group, Securities and Exchange, Trump Media, SEC, University of Florida, Mortgage Bankers Association Locations: New York, Russia, Ukraine, Yemen, Red, United Kingdom, Japan, Germany, Iraq, United States, Brazil, Guyana, Canada
Stocks and bonds both sold off as investors painfully recalibrated their expectations for five to six interest rate cuts this year to align more with the Fed’s projected three cuts. For example, Yardeni Research has pushed back against the idea that immediate rate cuts are necessary to avoid the Fed overshooting on slowing the economy. Stocks wouldn’t crater even if cuts were off the table completely in 2024, according to Bank of America, despite what Tuesday’s losses suggest. “No cuts could stymie a full-fledged recovery in more credit-sensitive areas,” wrote BofA strategists in a note on February 9. That means regional lenders will no longer have that crutch if they run into trouble after the program’s expiration on March 11.
Persons: Jerome Powell, , Ed Yardeni, it’s, Marc Dizard, Allison Morrow, Bitcoin, bitcoin, Antoni Trenchev, ” Read, Alicia Wallace, Read Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Wall, Federal Reserve, Traders, Fed, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, US Treasury, Valley Bank, Signature Bank, Yardeni Research, Bank of America, PNC Asset Management Group, Federal Reserve Bank of New, New York Fed, Liberty Street Economics, , New York Fed Locations: New York, pare, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, , New
New York CNN —Delta Air Lines is paying out $1.4 billion in profit sharing, more than double what it paid employees a year ago. The payout is up 146% from the profit sharing payment of a year earlier, and well above the $108 million for 2021. This is the second largest profit sharing payout by Delta, trailing only the record $1.6 billion it paid for 2019. But there are union contracts that include profit sharing payments, including the pilots at Delta, who get the same profit sharing formula as the nonunion employees, as well as some unionized employees at other airlines. The average profit sharing payment came to about $14,000 for Delta employees.
Organizations: New, New York CNN — Delta Air Lines, Delta, Association of, Management, Unions, United Auto Workers, General Motors, UAW, Ford Locations: New York
But lovers may experience sticker shock this year due to higher cocoa and sugar prices. "Chocolate prices are the highest we've seen in years," said a representative of NielsenIQ. He noted that in spite of higher prices, the chocolate market is robust in mature markets like Europe and North America. Now, chocolate and Valentine's Day are synonymous, even if critics say the affiliation is perpetuated by marketing gimmicks. That being said, chocolates are not the only Valentines' Day treats that will dent the wallet this year.
Persons: Scott Olson, Sergey Chetvertakov, David Branch, there's, Kim, Mintec, It's, Andrew Francis Wallace Organizations: Valentine's, Getty, P, El Nino, Food Institute, Branch, CNBC, Bloomberg, National Confectioners Association, Toronto Star Locations: Chicago , Illinois, Ghana, Ivory Coast, Wells, Asia, India, Africa, Azaguie, Europe, North America, Western Europe, Singapore, Toronto
So there's a totally different valuation metric now," Gundlach said at the Exchange ETF conference. The prior bull market for stocks peaked about two years ago, with the S & P 500 hitting a record high on Jan. 3, 2022. .SPX 5Y mountain The S & P 500's previous bull market rally topped out in early 2022. Gundlach also said he would allocate 10% or so in real assets, such as gold. Gundlach has warned repeatedly that a soft landing or " goldilocks " outcome for the U.S. economy is unlikely.
Persons: Jeffrey Gundlach, Gundlach, DoubleLine, Morgan Stanley, Berkshire Hathaway Organizations: Exchange ETF, CNBC, Tesla, Vanguard, Berkshire Locations: Japan, India, U.S
"We estimate that real house prices in China declined 16% from the peak in 2021Q3 to 2023Q3," Goldman analysts said. For context, US real house prices peaked in early 2006 and bottomed in 2012. Goldman's derived measure of China's real house prices has only dropped by half as much as the US saw during its six-year collapse, as the chart shows below. Goldman Sachs"[O]verly loose mortgage lending standards and too much mortgage debt, which were at the center of the US subprime crisis, do not apply in China," Goldman analysts said. Foreclosures soared as homeowners couldn't afford to pay off or refinance their mortgages, which lowered house prices further.
Persons: , Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Price Organizations: Service, International Monetary Fund, Business, Housing Locations: China, Beijing, 2021Q3
The latest concern threatening regional banks started on Jan. 31, when New York Community Bancorp. reported unexpected fourth quarter loss and a large loan loss reserve against futures losses, due in part to the bank's commercial real estate (CRE) exposure. One worry is that the NYCB credit downgrade could spur ratings agencies to take a closer look at other banks, or cause clients to again pull deposits out of regional banks. Determining exactly how unique NYCB's exposure to commercial real estate is will be a key focus for investors and analysts in coming weeks. A note on Wednesday from Wolfe Research analysts focused on banks and commercial real estate showed that regional banks have in general reduced their commercial real estate exposure over the past 15 years.
Persons: NYCB, Ian Lyngen, hasn't, Lyngen, D.A, Davidson, Peter Winter, Winter, Macrae Sykes, Banks, They're, Sykes, Wells Fargo, Jerome Powell, Bond, Tom Fitzpatrick, RJ O'Brien, Fitzpatrick, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Investors, New York Community Bancorp, Moody's, Street, Silicon Valley Bank, BMO, Treasury, Wolfe Research, UBS, Gabelli, CNBC Locations: Silicon, Wells
In Las Vegas, the cacophony of voices, music, ringing slot machines and car horns that typically pulsed through the Las Vegas Strip was replaced by silence, the chirps of birds and the wails of sirens. In tourism-dependent Nevada, the unemployment rate rocketed even higher, topping out at 30.6% that month. “This is an unemployment rate that’s not driven by job losers, this is an unemployment rate driven by job seekers,” he said. Homes under construction in the Summerlin community, on July 31, 2023, in Las Vegas, Nevada. As of December 2023, the Reno metro area’s unemployment rate was just 0.2 percentage points above the nation’s 3.7% rate.
Persons: John Simpson, Steve, Sisolak, ” Simpson, It’s, , they’re, I’ve, Stephen M, Miller, Mario Tama, Bob Potts, there’s, There’s, Nevadans, Annie E, Casey Foundation’s, Jamelle Nance, Marty Elquist, ” Elquist, , Andrew Woods, Nicholas Irwin, Start’s Simpson, Irwin, Ethan Miller, Maurice Page, Page, Tesla, ” Potts, Carolyn Cole, Potts, You’ve, you’ve Organizations: CNN, Las, Republican Party, of Labor Statistics, University of Nevada, Lee Business School’s Center for Business, Economic Research, New York, Nevada Governor’s, Economic, Las Vegas, New, Workforce, Children’s, Alliance of Nevada, Education, Development, Silver State, Center for Business, UNLV, Reno, , Homes, Nevada Housing Coalition, Harvard University’s, for Housing Studies, Silver, Means, Reno Industrial Park, Apple, Panasonic, Google, Reno Industrial, Los Angeles Times, NCAA, NFL, NFL Pro Bowl Locations: Nevada, Las Vegas, Reno, ” Nevada, State, New York, New, Las, New Mexico, Vegas, “ Nevada, Silver, UNLV . Nevada, California, Sparks, Las Vegas , Nevada, Florida, Hawaii, Clark County, Sparks , Nevada, New Orleans, Denver, Southern Nevada, Northern Nevada, Los Angeles
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